The Indian Express editorial analysis offers valuable insights into current issues affecting India, providing a critical understanding of socio-political and economic matters. For UPSC CSE preparation, such editorials are essential for developing analytical skills, enhancing understanding of governance, and applying knowledge to relevant General Studies topics. Through editorial analysis, aspirants can engage with contemporary issues, assess policy impacts, and build a nuanced perspective required for the examination.
1. Perils of Trump, the Maverick, for the US and the Rest of the World
A maverick is a person whose choices and behaviour are unpredictable. This can have both creative and destructive consequences.
Often, thinkers explain how social agents act in the world by positing a pair of personality types as binaries. Arthur Koestler, the former communist intellectual and philosopher of science, discussed this in his book The Yogi and the Commissar. In the lead essay, Koestler contrasts the two personality types:
- The Commissar: Seeks to manipulate social reality using scientific knowledge to align it with personal ideals.
- The Yogi: Turns inward, focusing on internal transformation, while the world fades into maya.
Most people fall somewhere between these two extremes. In India, our genius has allowed us to merge these binaries into the “Yogi Commissar.”
Isaiah Berlin’s Binary: The Hedgehog and the Fox
Oxford philosopher Isaiah Berlin, in his essay The Hedgehog and the Fox, argued:
- The Hedgehog: Knows one big thing and acts with singular purpose, following a universal organizing principle.
- The Fox: Knows many things and pursues multiple ends, often unrelated and contradictory.
While most people also exist between these types, the hedgehog’s focused behaviour often leads to achievable outcomes, whereas the fox’s scattered approach might result in unachieved goals.
Trump’s Administration: Maverick and Loyalist
The incoming administration of Donald Trump reflects two distinct personality types:
- The Maverick: Represented by Trump himself.
- The Loyalist: A key part of his regime.
These types are not opposing binaries but allies. Trump’s behaviour, his goals, and his radical plans for government transformation highlight these traits.
The Maverick: Creative and Destructive Consequences
Donald Trump embodies the maverick personality, marked by unpredictability. Mavericks see the establishment as inefficient and hostile to innovation, leading to what economist Schumpeter called “creative destruction.”
Creative Potential
In commerce, this often brings positive outcomes, as seen with Elon Musk’s innovations (Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink). Mavericks like Musk challenge established paths to deliver breakthroughs.
Destructive Risks in Governance
In government, however, the cost of creative destruction can be destabilizing. The maverick disrupts routinization, a key mechanism for ensuring equality and rights within the state.
- Example:
Argentina’s President Javier Milei, another maverick, has drastically overturned established Peronist policies.- Inflation dropped from 26% (Dec 2023) to 2.7% (Oct 2024).
- Poverty, however, increased from 42% (2023) to 53% (2024).
Compared to Milei, Trump’s influence is anticipated to be more disruptive, causing global apprehension.
Loyalists: A Greater Cause for Concern
While the maverick’s unpredictability creates unease, Trump’s reliance on loyalists is more worrisome.
- Information Feedback: Critical for decision-making, it must remain honest and scientifically sound. Loyalists, however, prioritize allegiance over truth, potentially compromising crucial decisions.
In a rapidly changing world marked by technological shifts, geopolitical hostilities, and humanitarian crises (e.g., Gaza), the loyalist-driven approach risks dangerous consequences. Even a powerful leader may fail to manage the chaos unleashed.
Historical Parallels
The emergence of maverick-loyalist regimes isn’t new. For example:
- India witnessed this dynamic during the Emergency in 1975.
- As American democracy evolves, lessons from this period could be insightful, particularly during its 50th anniversary.
Closing Thoughts
The interplay of creation and destruction within maverick governance challenges established systems. While such approaches can offer innovation, their destabilizing effects are often borne disproportionately by the disadvantaged. The world now watches Trump’s second act with trepidation.
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2. To Grow the Economy, Help Consumers Spend
Post-Covid, the government has focused on a capex-led recovery. While this approach has been pivotal, it now needs to be supplemented with consumption-boosting measures to sustain and accelerate economic growth.
GDP Growth: Moderation and Recovery
The first advance GDP growth estimate for 2024-25 reveals a slowdown to 6.4% from 8.2% in 2023-24. However, growth is expected to recover in the second half, with an implied rate of 6.7% compared to 6% in the first half.
This moderation in growth stems primarily from:
- Government Capex Disruption:
- A decline in capital expenditure due to multiple state and central elections.
- Centre’s capex dropped by 12%, while state capex fell by 6% in the first eight months of the fiscal year.
- Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs) saw a 10.8% reduction in capex during the first half.
- Gross fixed capital formation growth slowed to 6.4% from 9% last year.
While government capex was expected to recover in the latter half, the advance estimates indicate investment growth will remain subdued, which is concerning.
Private Consumption: A Silver Lining
Private consumption, which constitutes 55% of India’s GDP, showed a robust recovery, growing by 7.3% in 2024-25 compared to 4% in the previous year.
- Rural Consumption:
- Supported by strong agricultural production, rural spending has rebounded.
- Urban Consumption:
- Sluggish, partly due to high food inflation (7.6%).
- Expected to improve with moderating inflation in the coming months.
External Sector Performance
Exports of goods and services grew by an estimated 6% in 2024-25, up from 2.6% in the previous year.
- Services Exports: Continued robust growth.
- Merchandise Exports: Signs of recovery.
However, concerns remain due to global uncertainties, including:- Slowing economies in the EU and China.
- Potential trade-policy shifts under the new US administration.
- Financial market volatility driven by a strong US dollar.
Sector-Wise Growth Trends
- Agriculture: Healthy growth aided by a good monsoon.
- Services Sector: Estimated growth of 7.2%, slightly lower than last year’s 7.6%.
- Industry: Deceleration from 9.5% last year to 6.2% this year, with mining and manufacturing showing significant slowdowns, while construction maintains momentum.
Budgetary Considerations and Fiscal Implications
Nominal GDP growth is estimated at 9.7%, below the Union Budget’s 10.5% projection. The Centre is likely to miss its capex target by approximately ₹1.5 trillion. However, achieving the fiscal deficit target for the year will not be a challenge.
The government aims for a fiscal deficit below 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26. A slower fiscal consolidation approach—targeting 4.7% in 2025-26 and 4.5% by 2027-28—could still maintain a declining debt-to-GDP ratio while prioritizing growth.
Policy Recommendations
To return to a higher growth trajectory, the Union Budget should focus on measures that boost consumption alongside sustained capex initiatives:
- Job Creation and Skilling:
- Encourage household income growth to drive sustained consumption.
- Income Tax Cuts:
- Lowering personal income taxes can boost consumer sentiment and spending, even if it results in short-term revenue losses.
- Private Investment:
- A broad-based rise in consumption will catalyze private sector investment.
Conclusion
While India’s economic growth remains relatively strong amidst global turbulence, the slowdown from 7-8% levels of recent years demands introspection. A combination of capex-driven recovery and consumption-boosting measures is essential for long-term economic resilience.
3. Express View on HMPV Virus: Don’t Panic, Keep Vigil
India’s robust mechanisms for monitoring respiratory diseases, strengthened post-Covid, have positioned the country well to address concerns about the Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV). The Union Health Ministry’s recent steps to enhance surveillance for this virus reflect a proactive approach that emphasizes caution without unnecessary alarm.
Understanding HMPV
HMPV is not a novel pathogen. First identified in the Netherlands over two decades ago, it typically re-emerges during winter months. In developed countries, it is the second-most frequently detected virus among infants. Though regular testing for HMPV is not common in India, studies by ICMR and other agencies indicate it as a prevalent flu pathogen.
The reports of rising hospitalizations due to HMPV in China have sparked global concern. However, in most cases, HMPV infections are self-limiting and can be managed with symptom-specific treatments, proper nutrition, and hydration.
Targeting Vulnerable Groups
The Centre’s advisories for high-risk groups — children under five, senior citizens, and patients with chronic respiratory conditions like asthma, COPD, and bronchitis — are prudent. These groups are most susceptible to severe complications, especially when infections affect the lower respiratory tract.
Precautionary Measures
The Union Health Ministry has urged basic measures to curb the spread:
- Wearing masks.
- Avoiding close contact with individuals showing flu-like symptoms.
- Regular handwashing.
These simple practices, widely adopted during the Covid pandemic, remain effective in preventing the spread of respiratory infections.
Surveillance and Healthcare Preparedness
India’s surveillance mechanisms have proven their efficacy. The government’s quick response to influenza outbreaks, as seen in the Northeast during the winter of 2023, underscores its readiness.
- Current Surveillance: HMPV cases being detected primarily in hospitals signal that urban healthcare facilities are effectively monitoring respiratory diseases.
- Challenges: Strengthening district-level monitoring and integrating private healthcare facilities into the surveillance network are critical next steps. With over 80% of healthcare services provided by the private sector, this integration will ensure a more comprehensive response.
Moving Forward
India’s response to HMPV should align with the WHO’s precautionary principles for respiratory infections:
- Real-time monitoring of vulnerable populations.
- Strengthening healthcare networks across urban and rural areas.
- Ensuring public awareness through state and local authorities.
While there is no cause for panic, vigilance is essential. Enhanced cooperation between public and private healthcare sectors and sustained public health education can ensure India remains prepared to manage HMPV and similar respiratory challenges effectively.
4. Manipur CM has apologised to victims of violence in the state. Reconciliation must involve the perpetrators as well
The Chief Minister of Manipur’s recent apology to the victims of the violence that has engulfed the state since May 2023 marks an important step toward healing. However, true reconciliation demands more than an apology—it requires a profound understanding of the shared suffering across communities, a recognition of the complexity of the conflict, and a political imagination capable of fostering an inclusive and empathetic future.
Understanding the Conflict
Manipur’s conflict is not merely about law and order but a deeply rooted ethnic and political strife that has polarized communities. The violence is perpetuated by competing narratives of truth and identity, where each group asserts its victimhood while negating the suffering of others. This zero-sum approach often escalates into brutal violence, perpetuating cycles of loss and mistrust.
The Role of Leadership in Reconciliation
Leadership in such a scenario must transcend administrative measures and adopt a creative, empathetic approach. The Chief Minister’s apology is a gesture, but it must be followed by actionable steps that demonstrate genuine accountability. This includes fostering spaces for dialogue, addressing systemic issues, and promoting justice that balances the needs of both victims and perpetrators.
At the national level, the lack of visible engagement by the Prime Minister has been criticized. While measures like the invocation of Article 355 and the involvement of central agencies such as the National Investigative Agency (NIA) highlight the central government’s role, the absence of direct engagement by the highest leadership has raised questions about the sincerity of efforts to restore peace and trust in Manipur.
Reconciling Victimhood and Perpetration
Reconciliation must acknowledge that victimhood, while important, cannot become a tool to privilege one group’s pain over another. Violence in Manipur has inflicted injury and loss across ethnic lines, and this suffering must be seen as shared and distributive. Perpetrators, too, must be included in the reconciliation process—not to absolve their actions but to prevent the transformation of loss into further cycles of violence.
The Ethical Responsibility of Relatedness
A sustainable peace process requires fostering a sense of ethical relatedness among communities. This involves viewing the pain and suffering of others as interconnected and equally significant. By addressing grievances collectively and involving community leaders, organizations, and civil society, a foundation for trust and mutual respect can be built.
Challenges to Reconciliation
Efforts to reconcile have been complicated by the atmosphere of coercion and suppression. After the Jiribam killings, the state’s response included coercive measures that silenced criticism and inflamed public anger. True reconciliation cannot coexist with repression or divisive politics. It requires a conducive environment where grievances can be expressed freely, and solutions can be explored inclusively.
A Long Road Ahead
Reconciliation in Manipur is not a quick fix but a long-term process. It involves creating institutional mechanisms for dialogue, addressing deep-seated inequalities, and fostering a political culture that prioritizes empathy and inclusivity. The state leadership, alongside the central government, must commit to this journey, ensuring that all stakeholders—victims, perpetrators, and the wider community—are part of the process.
Only through such a comprehensive and ethical approach can Manipur move toward lasting peace and prosperity.
5. Thanks to PM’s Inclusive Governance, Christians in India Do Feel Heard
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s inclusive governance, guided by the principle of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas, has fostered a sense of belonging among India’s Christian community. Contrary to narratives that paint a different picture, the BJP’s engagement with Christians transcends ceremonial participation and emphasizes concrete actions aimed at upliftment and inclusivity.
Celebrating Milestones
The elevation of George Jacob Koovakad from Kerala to Cardinal in the Pope’s consistory was a moment of pride for Indian Christians. PM Modi’s acknowledgment of such events highlights his respect for the community’s contributions. Unlike detractors who focus on divisive narratives, the government’s actions have consistently aimed to bridge gaps and celebrate diversity.
Dismantling the Colonial Mindset
For decades, certain political factions have treated Christians as a captive vote bank, offering token gestures but little substantial progress. PM Modi’s governance has shifted the focus from appeasement to empowerment. This shift is evident in regions like Kerala and the Northeast, where the BJP has gained support by prioritizing development over rhetoric. The victory of BJP leaders like Suresh Gopi in Christian-dominated constituencies exemplifies this trend.
Real Issues Facing Christians
Critics often ignore real challenges faced by the Christian community. Whether it’s the Kerala Waqf Board controversy involving land rights of Christian fishing families or threats from extremist elements, the BJP has stood in solidarity with the affected. In contrast, political rivals have often sidelined these issues, focusing instead on creating divisive narratives.
Democratic Spirit of the Church
The Indian Christian Church operates as one of the most democratically governed institutions. Decisions on social and political matters involve active participation of the laity, showcasing a spirit of collective leadership. Attempts to misrepresent this dynamic reflect a disconnect with the community’s internal workings and aspirations.
Correcting Misinformation
Misleading campaigns, such as labeling the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) as anti-Christian, have failed to resonate with the community. The CAA, designed to offer refuge to persecuted minorities, including Christians, from neighboring countries, was welcomed by many. PM Modi’s emphasis on equal opportunities—ranging from scholarships and housing to welfare schemes—has further strengthened the community’s trust.
Rising Trust in Inclusive Governance
Christians across the country are increasingly recognizing the tangible benefits of inclusive policies. Whether in infrastructure development, ease of living, or rescue operations during crises, the community has experienced equal treatment under Modi’s leadership. Stories from Nagaland to Kerala reflect growing appreciation for a governance model free from corruption and focused on good governance.
Conclusion
The BJP’s outreach to Christians is rooted in respect, inclusion, and action. As the Christian community navigates its aspirations and challenges, it finds a responsive partner in the current government. This evolving relationship is a testament to the power of governance that prioritizes development and dignity over division and appeasement.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on the editorial content published in Indian Express and is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The views, opinions, and interpretations expressed herein are those of the author of original article. Readers are encouraged to refer to the original article for complete context and to exercise their own judgment while interpreting the analysis. The analysis does not constitute professional advice or endorsement of any political, economic, or social perspective.
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