India’s exports are on a steady growth trajectory, with the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) projecting total exports of goods and services to exceed USD 814 billion in 2024. This marks a 5.58% increase from USD 768.5 billion in 2023. Here’s a detailed analysis of the report and its implications:
Key Projections for 2024
- Merchandise Exports:
- Estimated at USD 441.5 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 2.34% from USD 431.4 billion in 2023.
- Services Exports:
- Expected to grow by 10.31%, reaching USD 372.3 billion from USD 337.5 billion in 2023.
- Total Exports:
- Combined goods and services exports projected to surpass USD 814 billion.
Sectoral Shifts
- Rising Sectors:
- Machinery: Share of exports increased to 6.9% in 2024 from 3.8% in 2014.
- Electronics: Share climbed to 7.9% in 2024, up from 3.3% in 2014.
- These trends highlight India’s growing strength in higher-value, technology-driven sectors, a critical pivot for long-term export resilience.
- Declining Sectors:
- Textiles and Garments: Share dropped from 21.1% in 2004 to 8% in 2024.
- Gems and Jewellery: Share fell from 16.9% in 2004 to 7.5% in 2024.
- The decline underscores challenges in labour-intensive industries, driven by changing global demand and competitiveness issues.
Challenges Ahead
- Global Trade Environment:
- Sluggish trade growth due to slow economic recovery in developed markets.
- Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict, continue to impact global supply chains.
- Logistics Disruptions:
- Red Sea shipping routes face disruptions, exacerbating supply chain vulnerabilities.
Expert Insights
- Ajay Srivastava (GTRI Founder):
“India’s export landscape reflects a shift towards higher-value sectors, a necessary adaptation for sustained growth. However, traditional sectors like textiles and gems face competitiveness challenges.”
Conclusion
India’s growing export figures highlight the country’s ability to adapt to global trends, especially in high-value sectors. However, maintaining growth amidst global uncertainties will require strategic policy interventions and enhanced competitiveness in traditional sectors.
Also Read: India’s Coffee Exports Cross $1 Billion for the First Time
Disclaimer
This article is for educational purposes, focusing on the relevance of the topic for UPSC aspirants. Students should stay updated on further developments and refer to official sources for comprehensive preparation.
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