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1. Global trade, Trump and India’s role
Context: The recent meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump focused on setting ambitious targets for bilateral trade amidst growing global trade uncertainties. The discussion took place against the backdrop of the US shifting away from Most-Favoured Nation (MFN) principles and adopting a more protectionist stance, raising concerns for India and other global trading partners.
Key Issues in India-US Trade Relations
- Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) and “Mission 500”
- India and the US aim to sign a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) by Fall 2025, under the broader framework of COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce, and Technology).
- The goal is to achieve $500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.
- Unlike a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), a BTA focuses on tariff reductions and easing non-tariff barriers (NTBs) while aligning trade policies.
- The BTA will also work towards reducing tariffs, enhancing market access, and addressing supply chain challenges.
- Strong Intra-Industry Trade Potential
- Both India and the US have sectors where they can simultaneously import and export similar products, enhancing economic cooperation.
- US Strengths: Plastics, base metals, precision instruments.
- India’s Strengths: Vegetable products, processed foods, stone and plaster.
- Shared Sectors: Chemicals, machinery, automobiles.
- The expansion of trade in these areas can help reduce the trade deficit between the two nations.
- Impact of Trump’s Trade Policies on Global Trade
- Trump administration’s shift away from MFN affects global trade stability.
- MFN, a principle established in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947, ensures non-discriminatory trade practices among WTO members.
- According to WTO’s Integrated Database (IDB) (January 2025), more than 80% of global merchandise trade is conducted under MFN.
- US Tariff Actions:
- Imposed 10% additional tariffs on Chinese goods.
- China has challenged these tariffs at the WTO, claiming they violate Article I:1 of GATT.
- India’s Strategic Response to Trade Challenges
- Quick adaptation and proactive engagement are required at multiple levels of governance.
- India must leverage COMPACT to overcome NTBs and improve market access.
- Need to understand trade instruments like Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs) used by the US to regulate imports.
- India should collaborate with the Global South to push for MFN and tariff reciprocity, ensuring a stable and predictable trade environment.
2. Yogendra Yadav writes: Social Justice for Muslims should not be about reservations
Context: Yogendra Yadav presents an opinion on the issue of social justice for Muslims in India, emphasizing that the focus should not solely be on reservations. He argues that affirmative action is crucial, but reservations, particularly for Muslims as a group, are not the best solution. Yadav explores the socio-economic disadvantages faced by Muslims, drawing on recent research that highlights the need for policy interventions beyond the conventional reservation framework. He suggests a broader approach, including improving infrastructure, sector-specific support, and addressing systemic discrimination, while also looking to involve NGOs and community-based organizations.
Key Points:
- Need for Affirmative Action:
- Muslims in India suffer from socio-economic disadvantages, comparable to SCs and STs in education and to OBCs in income and wealth.
- Educational disadvantages are not solely due to economic status. Even with similar family income and parental education, Muslims lag behind “upper-caste” Hindus in access to higher education and professional courses.
- The Sachar Committee Report (SCR) documented these disadvantages, and the latest data reinforces the findings.
- Data from the Latest Report:
- The report, “Rethinking Affirmative Action for Muslims in Contemporary India,” authored by Hilal Ahmed, Mohd Sanjeer Alam, and Nazima Parveen, presents the updated data:
- Educational Attainment: Muslims face significant educational disadvantage. For instance, Muslims are more likely to miss out on higher education despite having similar economic conditions as other groups.
- Economic Disadvantage: Muslims are similar to OBCs in terms of income and wealth, showing a systemic disadvantage.
- The report, “Rethinking Affirmative Action for Muslims in Contemporary India,” authored by Hilal Ahmed, Mohd Sanjeer Alam, and Nazima Parveen, presents the updated data:
- Challenges with Reservation for Muslims:
- Legal-constitutional Issue: The Constitution does not permit religious communities to be classified as “socially and educationally backward,” which has led to judicial rejections of reservations based solely on religion.
- Sociological Issue: Muslims in India are divided into hundreds of biradaris (communities) with vastly varying social, educational, and economic conditions, making it difficult to apply a uniform reservation policy.
- Political Issue: Any proposal for Muslim-specific reservation could lead to countrywide counter-mobilizations, further exacerbating communal tensions in India.
- Alternative Approaches:
- Religion-Agnostic Quota Approach: Instead of offering reservations specifically to Muslims, backward Muslim communities should be included in the OBC category, ensuring that more than 75% of Muslims, who qualify based on socio-economic indicators, can access affirmative action.
- States like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and West Bengal have already implemented this approach, and it should be expanded to the Hindi belt region.
- Categorization of OBCs: The current OBC category should be split into two lists— “extremely backward” and “backward”— to more effectively target those communities most in need.
- Dalit Muslims: The exclusion of Dalit Muslims from being classified as SC should be removed to allow them to access reservation benefits.
- Anti-Discrimination Law: There is a need for a law to protect Muslims from institutional discrimination, with the creation of an Equal Opportunity Commission to monitor implementation.
- Religion-Agnostic Quota Approach: Instead of offering reservations specifically to Muslims, backward Muslim communities should be included in the OBC category, ensuring that more than 75% of Muslims, who qualify based on socio-economic indicators, can access affirmative action.
- Beyond Reservation:
- Spatial Approach: The report supports the targeted improvement of public infrastructure in areas with high Muslim populations, addressing the gap in development.
- Minority Concentration Districts (MCDs) and localities with Muslim concentrations should be prioritized, but the implementation must be carefully monitored to ensure benefits are not misappropriated by non-Muslim populations.
- Sectoral Approach: The report endorses focusing on industries like weaving, meat processing, carpet-making, and other sectors where Muslim communities are prominent. These sectors can receive state support to boost their economic status.
- Private Sector Engagement: While enforcing quotas in the private sector may be counterproductive, the government can encourage diversity requirements for companies receiving state contracts or subsidies.
- Spatial Approach: The report supports the targeted improvement of public infrastructure in areas with high Muslim populations, addressing the gap in development.
- Role of NGOs and Self-Help Groups:
- There is a call to look beyond the state for solutions. Engaging NGOs, self-help groups, and community-based charities will help address the needs of local Muslim communities more effectively.
- Future Outlook:
- The report presents a pragmatic blueprint that may not be feasible in the current political climate, which is often characterized by anti-Muslim politics, but it lays out actionable steps for the future.
3. We are not getting the leaders we deserve
This article reflects on the lack of effective leadership and the need for a collective shift in perspective to address the global challenges of today. Here are the key points that highlight the urgency for a new approach to leadership and success:
- Lack of Effective Leadership:
- The world is facing collective challenges such as climate change and artificial intelligence, yet leadership continues to be driven by self-interest, as evidenced in global politics and even corporate sectors. Current leaders often prioritize their own country’s interests over collective global well-being, which creates fragmentation.
- The example of leaders at Davos prioritizing their national interests (like Zelenskyy seeking aid for Ukraine and von der Leyen discussing tariffs) illustrates the narrow, self-serving mindset that prevails.
- The Shift in Perspective:
- There is a need to move away from materialistic measures of success (such as product creation) and focus instead on human development. The current model, where human progress is measured in terms of technological or economic growth, is not fulfilling the deeper needs for happiness or mental well-being.
- According to a 2018 WHO study, mental health disorders are on the rise, with one in eight people globally affected. This trend highlights a need for a shift toward human-centered development, as the products of the modern age have not improved our overall quality of life.
- Collaboration Over Competition:
- Academia and the business world are already moving toward a more collaborative mindset. Schools are increasingly emphasizing teamwork, and companies, like Apple, thrive on global collaboration. However, in politics, leaders often still operate in a competitive, self-interested framework, which undermines the potential for global solutions.
- The example of global supply chains, where products like the iPhone rely on international teamwork, illustrates the success of collaborative models, while political leaders tend to disrupt such systems for narrow political gains.
- The Need for a New Kind of Leadership:
- Current leaders, elected through polarized systems, often fail to represent the collective needs of the population. The political environment breeds leaders who manipulate and prioritize their own power, rather than addressing the complex, shared issues humanity faces.
- This creates a paradox where, while we face unprecedented challenges, the systems in place seem ill-equipped to solve them. This echoes the historical moment when Marie Antoinette’s indifference to her people’s suffering led to revolution, a signal that leadership needs to change to meet the demands of the time.
- A Call for Human Development:
- The Renaissance and Enlightenment periods marked major social transformations, emphasizing art, reason, and secularism. Today, we find ourselves in the Information or Digital Age, where success is often measured by the products we create rather than the personal and collective growth we experience.
- The article suggests that we need to reevaluate how we measure success and focus on human development, cooperation, and addressing global challenges in a more collective, holistic way.
Conclusion: The world is at a critical juncture, facing numerous collective challenges. The current leadership structure, driven by individual self-interest, is insufficient to address these issues. A shift is needed toward collaboration, collective human development, and leadership that reflects the interconnectedness of humanity. Only through this transformation can we hope to tackle the greatest threats of our time and create a better future for all.
4. Express View on Trump’s plan for Russia-Ukraine war: Europe’s uncertain future
This article presents a critical analysis of the potential ramifications of Donald Trump’s plan for the Russia-Ukraine war, and how it could reshape Europe’s future. Here are the main points to consider:
- Trump’s Outreach to Russia:
- Trump’s approach represents a significant shift from the West’s stance, especially under Joe Biden’s administration, which had isolated Russia. His proposal to begin peace talks with Russia marks an end to nearly three years of diplomatic estrangement between the West and Russia.
- Trump’s diplomatic initiative, including a phone call with Putin and upcoming negotiations in Saudi Arabia, signals his desire to restore a working relationship with Moscow, effectively sidelining Ukraine’s participation in the talks.
- The Growing Divide Between the US and Europe:
- The US and Europe seem to be diverging in their approaches to the Russia-Ukraine war. While Trump seeks to negotiate peace with Russia and potentially recognize its territorial gains, Europe remains committed to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This difference is likely to create ongoing tension within the Western alliance.
- Trump’s assertion that Ukraine “may be Russian” one day and his dismissal of Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders as “unrealistic” aligns more with Russian interests and highlights the diplomatic rift between the US and Europe. European leaders, such as Macron and Starmer, are taking steps to ensure that the war’s outcome does not undermine Ukraine’s future or its NATO aspirations.
- Europe’s Response:
- Europe, particularly France and the UK, is unlikely to accept Trump’s plan easily, as it goes against the long-standing principle of maintaining Ukraine’s sovereignty. An emergency summit convened by Macron indicates Europe’s intent to manage the situation independently, and it’s clear that the EU will continue to support Ukraine against Russian aggression.
- The potential for further Russian expansionism, if Trump’s approach succeeds, may prompt Europe to strengthen its military alliances, including NATO, to protect against future territorial encroachments by Russia.
- India’s Position:
- India finds itself in a delicate position, balancing its relationships with both the West and Russia. Prime Minister Modi’s statement that “India is not neutral, India is siding with peace” highlights India’s commitment to diplomatic engagements that promote stability, while maintaining strong ties with Moscow.
- India could benefit from a peaceful resolution to the conflict, which would bring economic stability, energy security, and open up trade opportunities. Furthermore, a Trump-Putin peace deal could allow Western powers to refocus on countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, a priority for India.
- Potential Outcomes for Europe:
- If Trump’s peace deal progresses, it could lead to the marginalization of Ukraine and a shift in Europe’s security strategy. The US, in seeking a rapprochement with Russia, might weaken the West’s collective position, leaving Europe to fend for itself against potential Russian threats.
- Europe’s best course of action would likely be to strengthen its military capabilities and alliances, ensuring that it remains a powerful force capable of deterring Russian aggression and preserving the balance of power on the continent.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on the editorial content published in Indian Express and is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The views, opinions, and interpretations expressed herein are those of the author of original article. Readers are encouraged to refer to the original article for complete context and to exercise their own judgment while interpreting the analysis. The analysis does not constitute professional advice or endorsement of any political, economic, or social perspective.
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