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1. With Team Trump, Continuity in Delhi-Washington Ties
Introduction
The ongoing bilateral conversations between Indian and US diplomats highlight the growing strategic congruence between the two nations. This relationship has endured despite transitions in leadership in Washington, emphasizing the continuity in Delhi-Washington ties. This article explores the factors contributing to this sustained partnership and the implications for India’s foreign policy.
Continuity in US Foreign Policy
The transition from the Trump Administration (2017–2021) to the Biden Administration (2021–2025) showcased significant consistency in US foreign policy objectives. Key areas of overlap include:
- Restoration of US Manufacturing Capacity: Both administrations prioritized rebuilding domestic industries to reduce dependency on global supply chains.
- Countering China’s Expansionism: A shared focus on addressing China’s aggressive strategies in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Technological Leadership: Commitment to regaining US dominance in critical and emerging technologies.
- Global Economic Order: Efforts to reshape international economic frameworks to counter China’s influence.
India-US Strategic Partnership
The strategic partnership between India and the US has been a cornerstone of this continuity:
- Indo-Pacific Framework:
- The Trump Administration introduced a robust Indo-Pacific strategy, anchoring India’s role in regional stability.
- The Biden Administration reinforced this framework, underlining India’s importance in maintaining a balance of power in Asia.
- The Quadrilateral Security Forum (Quad):
- Revived under Trump, the Quad brought the US, India, Australia, and Japan together as a regional security mechanism.
- Biden elevated the Quad to a summit-level platform, strengthening multilateral cooperation.
- Technology Transfers and ICET:
- Advanced technology transfers initiated under Trump were expanded under Biden with the launch of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (ICET) in 2023.
- ICET symbolizes the growing trust and technological collaboration between the two nations.
Jake Sullivan’s India Visit
The recent visit of US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan underscores the evolving partnership:
- Review of ICET Progress: Discussions with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval focused on critical projects, such as transferring fighter jet engine technology.
- Economic Corridor Discussions: Collaboration on the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor was a key topic.
- Strategic Dialogues: Meetings with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar addressed bilateral relations with China and Russia.
Navigating Challenges
Despite mutual trust, challenges persist:
- India’s Ties with Russia: A point of contention due to India’s reliance on Russian defense equipment and energy resources.
- Sensitive Incidents: Issues like the killing of Gurpatwant Singh Pannun and allegations regarding the coup in Bangladesh have tested diplomatic relations.
- Future Under Trump’s Second Term: While some issues may arise, they are unlikely to derail the overall positive trajectory of the India-US strategic partnership.
Conclusion
The Delhi-Washington partnership has matured into a robust and multi-dimensional relationship. Both nations are aligned on strategic priorities, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region and technological collaboration. As transitions in leadership occur, the foundations of mutual trust and shared objectives ensure continuity in this vital bilateral relationship.
Source: IE
2. Labour Minister’s Employment Numbers Do Not Tell the Whole Story
Introduction
Recent statements by Union Labour Minister Mansukh Mandaviya highlighting employment growth under the NDA government have sparked discussions about the quality and sustainability of job creation in India. While employment statistics show improvement, a closer examination reveals underlying issues, including poor-quality jobs and structural setbacks in the economy.
Employment Growth: A Mixed Picture
The Labour Minister compared employment growth under the NDA (2014–2024) and UPA (2004–2014) governments:
- Employment Numbers:
- Employment increased from 47 crore in 2014-15 to 64 crore by 2023-24, marking a 36% rise.
- In contrast, the UPA decade saw a modest 7% increase, from 44 crore in 2004 to 47 crore in 2014.
- Worker Population Ratio (WPR):
- The WPR for individuals aged 15 years and above shows a fluctuating trend:
- Declined from 62.2% in 2004-05 to 54.7% in 2011-12 during UPA rule.
- Fell further to 46.8% in 2017-18 under the NDA before recovering to 58.2% by 2023-24.
- The WPR for individuals aged 15 years and above shows a fluctuating trend:
- Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR):
- Declined from 63.7% in 2004-05 to 49.8% in 2017-18 before reversing.
- This trend does not align neatly with political transitions, challenging simplistic narratives.
- Unemployment Rate:
- Fell between 2004-05 and 2011-12, before hitting a 45-year high in 2017-18 under the NDA.
Challenges in Job Quality
Despite recent improvements in labour statistics, the quality of jobs being created raises concerns:
- Agriculture Employment:
- The minister noted a 19% increase in farm employment from 2014-2023, compared to a 16% decline during 2004-2014.
- This rise reflects a structural regression, as India aims to reduce its reliance on agriculture and expand manufacturing and services.
- Low-Paying and Informal Jobs:
- A significant portion of new jobs falls under low-paying “self-employment,” often as unpaid helpers in household enterprises.
- This trend indicates deepening economic distress rather than progress.
- Lack of Structural Transformation:
- India’s economic vision has long sought a shift from agriculture to higher-productivity sectors like manufacturing and services.
- The reversal in this trajectory highlights missed opportunities for economic modernization.
Key Takeaways
- Data Contextualization: Absolute employment numbers must be interpreted against population growth and demographic changes.
- Sectoral Trends: An increase in low-quality agricultural jobs is a sign of distress, not progress.
- Economic Transformation: True success lies in creating formal, high-quality jobs in manufacturing and services.
Conclusion
While the NDA government’s tenure has seen a recovery in labour statistics, the story is far from complete. Structural issues, poor-quality jobs, and sectoral imbalances suggest the need for deeper reforms. Policymakers must focus on sustainable, high-quality employment to achieve long-term economic growth and transformation.
Source: IE
3. Building a System That Sees the Migrant Worker
Introduction
Migrant workers form a vital yet vulnerable segment of India’s unorganised workforce. Despite their indispensable contribution to the economy, they face significant challenges, including disenfranchisement, poor access to public services, and a lack of social security. The government’s initiatives, such as the e-Shram portal and the One-Stop Solution (OSS), aim to address these issues but fall short in certain critical areas.
The e-Shram Portal: A Promising Beginning
The e-Shram portal, launched in May 2021, was conceived as a national database for unorganised workers following the Supreme Court’s directive during the pandemic-induced migrant crisis. With over 300 million workers registered, it represents an important step toward recognising and documenting this labour force.
However, the portal primarily operates as a “registration drive” and lacks a comprehensive mechanism to include migrant workers in social security systems. Significant numbers of registered workers, especially migrants, remain excluded from critical welfare schemes such as food security and ration cards.
Challenges Faced by Migrant Workers
- Eligibility Exclusions:
Many migrants lack adequate documentation, such as Aadhaar cards or ration cards, preventing them from registering on the e-Shram portal. Inadequate mobile phone access and linkage issues further exacerbate the problem. - Disenfranchisement and Mobility Barriers:
High mobility among migrant workers complicates their access to consistent welfare benefits. The portability of welfare schemes across states remains a significant concern. - Gender Disparities:
Despite 53.59% of e-Shram registrants being women, structural gender inequalities persist, demanding a gender-sensitive approach to welfare policies. - Lack of Comprehensive Data:
Migrants are not a homogeneous group. Detailed mapping of their socio-cultural, regional, and economic profiles is essential to design inclusive and equitable policies.
The One-Stop Solution (OSS): An Integrated Approach
The OSS platform, launched in October 2024, aims to provide seamless access to multiple social security schemes for e-Shram registrants. Key features include:
- Integration of schemes like One Nation One Ration Card, MGNREGA, and PM Shram Yogi Maandhan.
- Future linkage with additional welfare programmes such as PM Matru Vandana Yojana and Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana.
- Emphasis on pensions, insurance, credit, health, skill development, and food security.
While the OSS marks a strategic shift toward recognising unorganised workers’ rights, it must address systemic barriers to achieve meaningful impact.
Recommendations for Strengthening Social Security for Migrants
- Portability of Welfare Benefits:
Welfare entitlements must be accessible across states to ensure uninterrupted support for mobile workers. - Inclusive Documentation Policies:
Simplified registration processes and alternative identification mechanisms can address documentation barriers. - Gender-Sensitive Policies:
Social security schemes must be tailored to address the unique challenges faced by female workers in the unorganised sector. - Disaggregated Data Collection:
Detailed profiling of migrant workers is essential to design effective policies and ensure equitable inclusion. - Focus on Human Development:
Rather than viewing social security as a subsidy burden, policymakers must invest in human capital development to unlock the potential of migrant workers as economic assets.
Conclusion
India’s migrant workforce fuels the nation’s economic engine, yet their rights and welfare often remain overlooked. While initiatives like e-Shram and OSS signify progress, they must evolve to address persistent gaps in inclusion and social security. Achieving the vision of Viksit Bharat requires robust, well-governed migration and welfare systems that ensure dignity, equity, and opportunity for all workers.
Source: IE
4. A 2025 Wishlist for Farms and Farmers
Introduction
Agriculture forms the backbone of India’s economy, directly or indirectly supporting over half the population. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi envisions a Viksit Bharat by 2047, agricultural productivity, incomes, and the welfare of farmers and farm workers must improve significantly. The challenges of climate change, stagnating rural wages, and an outdated subsidy regime demand urgent reforms to create a resilient and inclusive agricultural sector.
Climate Resilience and Agri-R&D
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that 2024 was the warmest year since 1901, with temperatures 0.9°C above the Long Period Average. Such heat spikes pose a severe threat to crops like wheat, where a 1°C rise can reduce yields by up to 5%. While the government has introduced 109 climate-resilient crop varieties, their adoption at scale remains limited due to a weak agricultural extension system.
To combat the effects of climate change, the 2025 Union Budget must prioritize:
- Boosting Agri-R&D Funding: Increased investment in research to develop and disseminate heat-resilient crop varieties.
- Strengthening Extension Services: Expanding agri-extension networks to ensure farmers adopt advanced techniques and climate-resilient crops.
Reforming Subsidies for Efficiency
India’s food and fertiliser subsidies are projected to exceed ₹4 lakh crore in FY25, with schemes like PM-KISAN and MGNREGA pushing rural expenditure beyond ₹5 lakh crore. However, these subsidies often fail to deliver desired outcomes due to inefficiencies and leakages.
To make these schemes effective:
- Merge Fertiliser Subsidy with PM-KISAN: Provide direct cash transfers to farmers on a per-hectare basis instead of subsidising fertiliser prices. Deregulate fertiliser prices to promote efficiency and reduce misuse.
- Revise Urea Pricing: Urea prices have remained unchanged since 2012. Rationalising prices will curb overuse and promote balanced fertiliser application, benefiting both productivity and environmental sustainability.
- Targeted Food Subsidy via Digital Coupons: Replace untargeted food subsidies with digital coupons for 20 essential nutritious items, ensuring benefits reach the needy.
Addressing Stagnating Rural Wages
The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) reveals that rural wages, including those for farm workers, have stagnated or declined over the past five years. This impacts millions and stifles rural consumption.
Policy measures to boost wages include:
- Linking MGNREGA with Agricultural Work: Align the rural employment scheme with farm activities to reduce labour shortages during peak seasons.
- Investing in Rural Infrastructure: Allocate savings from rationalised subsidies to build rural roads, water harvesting systems, and upgraded agri-markets.
Combating Food Inflation
Food inflation, driven by soaring vegetable and staple prices, has disrupted India’s economic stability. In November 2024, vegetable inflation reached 29%, with potatoes witnessing a staggering 67% increase. To control inflation:
- Ensure Accurate Production Data: Bridge the gap between government and private production estimates to ensure effective market interventions.
- Promote Cold Storage and Logistics: Invest in infrastructure to reduce post-harvest losses and stabilise supply chains.
Moving Beyond Freebies to Inclusive Development
The growing culture of election freebies undermines economic sustainability. Schemes like Ladli Behna Yojana and promises of high monthly payments to specific groups drain resources and distort priorities. It is essential to:
- Regulate Election Promises: The Election Commission and Supreme Court must ensure accountability in political pledges to safeguard public resources.
- Focus on Human Development: Shift from short-term doles to long-term investments in education, healthcare, and skill development for rural populations.
Conclusion
India’s journey toward Viksit Bharat hinges on a bold and focused approach to agricultural reforms. By addressing climate resilience, rationalising subsidies, boosting rural wages, and curbing food inflation, the government can transform agriculture into a vibrant and sustainable sector. As 2025 approaches, it offers a golden opportunity for the Modi government to demonstrate visionary leadership and lay the foundation for a prosperous agricultural economy.
Source: IE
5. Steering Towards Stability After a Year of Uncertainty
Introduction
The year 2024 will likely be remembered as a “polycritical year”—marked by the convergence of multiple, interconnected crises across geopolitics, geoeconomics, geoenergy, and geotechnics. These overlapping uncertainties have left the world at a crossroads, facing a choice between a dystopian future and progress toward stability and sustainability. As we enter 2025, the global community must collectively address these challenges by fostering multidisciplinary collaboration and building resilient institutions.
Geopolitical Uncertainty
2024 witnessed a surge in pseudo-imperial ambitions and territorial revanchism, threatening the post-WWII rules-based international order.
- Resurgence of Expansionism: Leaders like Vladimir Putin (seeking to recreate “Imperia Rus”), Xi Jinping (aspiring for China’s dominance), and Benjamin Netanyahu (pursuing “Greater Israel”) represent a dangerous shift towards modernist feudalism.
- Cold War Redux: With expanded rivalries and heightened tensions, the global landscape risks sliding into a precarious state reminiscent of the Cold War.
- Elections and Anti-Incumbency: Across 70 nations, elections underscored widespread disillusionment with incumbent leadership, driven by economic slowdowns, inflation, and rising public anger. This trend raises questions about the structural roots of this political upheaval and its long-term implications.
Economic Challenges
The global economy ended 2024 grappling with slower growth, mounting public debt, and rising protectionism. The unpredictability of policies—particularly in the United States under a new administration—adds further complexity. Key issues include:
- Erratic Monetary Policy: Central banks are struggling to strike a balance between inflation control and economic recovery.
- Green Energy Transition: The push for renewables is constrained by structural, financial, and political challenges, requiring trillions in investments and coordinated action.
Geoenergy and the Green Transition
The shift to renewable energy has become imperative in the face of global warming. However, the path forward remains fraught with obstacles:
- Structural Barriers: Transitioning from a fossil-fuel-based energy system to green alternatives demands decades of redesigning and rebuilding infrastructure.
- Financial Constraints: Mobilizing trillions of dollars requires innovative funding mechanisms through public-private partnerships and multilateral efforts.
- Political Hesitations: Phasing down fossil fuels comes with social and economic repercussions, making elected leaders wary of bold action.
History shows that previous energy transitions—from wood to coal and coal to oil—were “additive,” not “substitutive.” This makes the current challenge of substituting renewables for fossil fuels unprecedented and uncertain.
Technological Disruption
While technological advances like AI, robotics, quantum computing, and genetic engineering have transformed society, they also raise profound ethical and existential concerns:
- Loss of Control: Could creators lose control over human-competitive intelligence?
- Ethical Dilemmas: What safeguards are necessary to address the ramifications of rapid technological progress?
- Lack of Accountability: Defining governance and accountability structures remains critical but unresolved.
The Way Forward: Multidisciplinary and Collective Action
The polycritical nature of these uncertainties underscores the need for global polycentric institutions that are multidisciplinary and collaborative. Key steps include:
- Fostering Global Collaboration: Nations must prioritize cooperation over competition, pooling resources and expertise to address interconnected challenges.
- Building Resilient Institutions: Multilateral organizations must evolve to tackle modern crises with agility and inclusivity.
- Promoting Inclusive Growth: Policymakers should focus on reducing inequality, ensuring sustainable development, and addressing the root causes of public discontent.
Conclusion
The year 2025 presents an opportunity to navigate the complexities of a polycrisis era with strategic foresight and collective resolve. While the uncertainties are daunting, history reminds us that progress often emerges from adversity. As Epictetus wisely observed, “We cannot choose our external circumstances, but we can always choose how we respond to them.” By choosing cooperation, innovation, and inclusivity, the global community can steer towards stability and build a resilient future.
Source: IE
6. Imagine a Society Based on Trust
Introduction
Trust is the cornerstone of modern societies, driving efficiencies, reducing costs, and fostering prosperity. However, in India, the glaring absence of trust between businesses, governments, and citizens significantly hampers progress. If we can cultivate a trust-driven society, the possibilities for growth and efficiency are boundless.
The Cost of Distrust
In India, distrust permeates every level of interaction:
- Business Environment: Entrepreneurs struggle with delayed payments, corrupt officials, and insecure land titles, creating immense stress and financial burdens. For small businesses, these challenges are often insurmountable.
- Judicial System: Cases of bounced cheques and fraud overwhelm the judiciary, reflecting a lack of faith in financial dealings.
- Daily Life: From installing expensive security systems to navigating bureaucratic red tape, the lack of trust inflates costs and limits societal progress.
The Power of Trust
Trust enables modern societies to transcend their historical limitations of small, insular communities. Mechanisms that expand trust beyond family and friends underpin social and economic systems:
- Everyday Transactions: People trust banks with their savings, vendors with e-commerce payments, and institutions with their safety.
- Economic Growth: High-trust societies incur lower transaction costs, enabling faster and more efficient business operations.
- Social Benefits: Trust reduces mental burdens, freeing individuals to pursue meaningful activities, whether for work, leisure, or innovation.
Reimagining Greenfield Cities with Trust
Building greenfield urban spaces offers a compelling example of how trust can replace capital-intensive solutions:
- The Role of Government: Instead of financing projects, the government can facilitate trust between stakeholders, including landowners, developers, and investors.
- Institutional Mechanisms: Predictable processes and enforceable contracts are critical to generating confidence among all parties involved.
- Unlocking Resources: India has abundant land and capital, but the challenge lies in creating systems that ensure fairness, transparency, and predictability.
Scaling Trust to Society
Imagine a society where trust extends from localities to entire cities and nations:
- Safety: Reduced reliance on security systems and enforcement mechanisms leads to financial savings and peace of mind.
- Productivity: With fewer resources spent on mitigating risks, individuals and businesses can focus on innovation and growth.
- Collaboration: Trust fosters cooperation, enabling large-scale projects and collective problem-solving.
Lessons from Everyday Life
Trust functions as the “traffic signal” of society. Just as road rules ensure smooth movement, societal rules built on trust streamline interactions and minimize chaos. The collective agreement to follow norms benefits everyone, creating a harmonious and efficient system.
The Path Forward
To build a high-trust society, India must:
- Strengthen Institutions: Robust mechanisms for contract enforcement and dispute resolution are essential.
- Foster Transparency: Open and accountable governance builds confidence among citizens and businesses.
- Promote Ethical Practices: Addressing corruption and ensuring fairness in public dealings are crucial steps toward trust-building.
- Encourage Civic Engagement: Involving citizens in decision-making processes fosters a sense of ownership and mutual respect.
Conclusion
Societies built on trust experience transformative benefits, unlocking efficiencies, reducing costs, and fostering collaboration. In India, the lack of trust is a significant barrier to progress, but it is not insurmountable. By focusing on institutional reforms and cultural shifts, we can create a society where trust thrives, paving the way for a more prosperous, effective, and harmonious future.
Source: IE
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on the editorial content published in Indian Express and is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The views, opinions, and interpretations expressed herein are those of the author of original article. Readers are encouraged to refer to the original article for complete context and to exercise their own judgment while interpreting the analysis. The analysis does not constitute professional advice or endorsement of any political, economic, or social perspective.
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