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1. The kind of jobs needed for the ‘Viksit Bharat’ goal
The Union Budget has been presented, making this the right time to outline the three kinds of jobs India must create to strengthen long-term job creation and real wage growth. While the 2024 Budget introduced Employment Linked Incentives (ELI) under the Prime Minister’s five-scheme initiative—designed to generate over four crore jobs over five years—there must be a deeper focus on the type of jobs needed for a ‘Viksit Bharat’.
1. Climate-Resilient Jobs
- India was the seventh most-affected country by climate change in 2019, suffering an income loss of $159 billion in 2021. The RBI estimates adaptation costs to be nearly $1 trillion by 2030.
- To meet net-zero targets by 2070, the government must create jobs that maximize climate “co-benefits” (IPCC).
- Key initiatives could include:
- Providing 3-4 state-subsidised e-rickshaws in 6,00,000 villages to create two million jobs, especially for women.
- Encouraging private investment in compressed biogas plants to meet the target of 5,000 plants (versus only 82 set up by FY23-24).
- Accelerating the 500GW non-fossil energy capacity target, which could generate over one million jobs, with strong support for decentralized and rooftop solar (which is seven times more labor-intensive).
2. AI-Resilient Jobs
- With the rise of generative AI, many jobs now have a 50%+ automation potential. McKinsey Global Institute predicts that 50% of automation adoption in India could happen in the next decade.
- India’s IT and business services, which comprised 70%+ of services exports (Economic Survey 2021), may see limited employment potential in the AI era as labor becomes costlier relative to capital.
- New jobs must prioritize human ‘creativity’ and physical engagement, making them AI-resilient. This can be achieved by:
- Increasing education and healthcare budgets to address shortages of healthcare professionals and teachers.
- Strengthening financing for the National Rural Livelihood Mission to facilitate global and urban market linkages for rural artisans, farmers, and craftsmen.
3. Aspiration-Centric Jobs
- Rural youth continue to struggle with low confidence due to poor foundational education, limited English proficiency, and a resource-deprived upbringing.
- Many rely on government jobs and entrance exam coaching, reinforcing their dependency on traditional career paths.
- To address their aspirations dynamically, India must:
- Build around 70,000 integrated pack-houses to plug the 95%+ infrastructure gap and create over two million jobs.
- Boost productivity and value-addition for high import/export sectors, particularly in agri-inputs and local manufacturing.
- Expand tech and social media outreach to make off-farm jobs more aspirational.
- Accelerate the ‘National Mission on Edible Oils – Oilseeds’ to reduce India’s 57% edible-oil import dependence by revitalizing rural processing of native oilseeds like soybean and sunflower.
Conclusion
While tax relief may provide temporary urban demand boosts, deeper structural reforms are essential for creating climate-resilient, AI-resilient, and aspiration-centric jobs. As India moves towards the vision of ‘Viksit Bharat’, these opportunities must be harnessed for sustainable and inclusive job creation.
2. Eliminating elitism in mental health
The mental health of blue-collar workers has long been overlooked, despite their exposure to severe workplace risks. The upcoming Labour Codes provide an opportunity to bridge this gap by incorporating a liability-based framework to ensure their mental well-being.
Current Scenario and Challenges
- Limited Recognition in Labour Codes
- The Occupational Safety, Health and Working Conditions Code (OSHWC), 2020 focuses primarily on physical safety, implicitly excluding mental well-being.
- Section 6(1)(d) of OSHWC uses vague language such as ‘as far as reasonably practicable’, making employer responsibility ambiguous.
- Definitions in Sections 23 and 24 restrict ‘health’ to physical aspects, leaving out psychological concerns.
- Exclusion from ‘Occupational Injuries’
- The Code on Social Security (CSC), 2020, under Section 2(28), defines ‘employment injury’ only as a result of accidents or listed occupational diseases.
- The third schedule does not recognize diseases arising from mental strain at the workplace.
- Unlike the Bombay High Court’s ruling in Laxmibai Atmaram v. Bombay Port Trust (1953), which acknowledged employment as a contributing cause of illness, current laws require workers to prove a direct link between mental illness and their job.
- Disparity Between White-Collar and Blue-Collar Workers
- Corporate initiatives such as Infosys’ HALE Program, Wipro’s ‘Mitra’ initiative, and TCS’s Employee Assistance Program cater primarily to white-collar workers.
- The government’s Tele Manas initiative, aimed at bridging the mental health gap, relies on voluntary participation, which blue-collar workers may hesitate to engage in due to lack of awareness and social stigma.
The Way Forward
- Legislative Reforms
- Introduce a rights and duty-based framework that balances an employer’s right to efficiency with the duty to ensure both physical and mental well-being of workers.
- Expand the third schedule of the CSC to include mental health-related occupational diseases, minimizing the need for judicial interpretation.
- Tripartite Collaboration
- Establish a structured relationship between employers, workers, and mental health specialists within the Labour Codes.
- Workplace Regulations for Mental Health
- In response to recent CEO remarks advocating 70-90 hour workweeks, the government must mandate a sustainable work environment to prevent burnout.
- Awareness and Mandatory Mental Health Support
- Employers should be legally required to raise awareness about government programs like Tele Manas among blue-collar workers.
- Inclusion in the National Mental Health Discourse
- Mental health policies must formally recognize blue-collar workers as key stakeholders, ensuring they are not left behind in workplace well-being discussions.
By addressing these structural issues, India can take a crucial step toward making mental health support accessible and equitable for all workers, regardless of their job classification.
3. Some wind behind the sails of India’s shipping industry
Government’s Commitment to the Maritime Sector
- The maritime sector has historically been neglected but is now receiving attention.
- The Sagarmala Programme aims to invest ₹5.8 lakh crore by 2035.
- 241 projects worth ₹1.22 lakh crore completed
- 234 projects worth ₹1.8 lakh crore under implementation
- 364 projects worth ₹2.78 lakh crore in development
- Within Sagarmala:
- ₹2.91 lakh crore (50%) for port modernisation
- ₹2.06 lakh crore (35%) for port connectivity
- ₹55.8 thousand crore (10%) for port-led industrialisation
- 5% for coastal community development, coastal shipping, and inland water transport
Economic and Trade Growth
- India’s GDP has grown from ₹153 trillion (2016-17) to ₹272 trillion (2022-23), despite COVID-19 disruptions.
- Projected to reach $3.7 trillion in 2025, $5 trillion by 2027, and $7 trillion by 2030.
- EXIM trade grew from $66 billion (2016-17) to $116 billion (2022)—a 77% increase.
- Targeting $2 trillion in exports by 2030.
Stagnation in the Indian Shipping Industry
- Despite economic growth, Indian shipping has remained stagnant.
- Cargo handled at major ports saw only 14.26% cumulative growth (2016-21).
- Number of vessels declined by 5.93% (from 21,655 in 2016-17 to 20,371 in 2020-21).
- Indian-registered ships increased from 1,313 (2016-17) to 1,526 (Sept 2024)—a 16.77% increase.
- Gross tonnage grew from 11.5 million GT to 13.7 million GT (2016-24).
- Aging fleet concern:
- Average vessel age 26 years in 2022-23, improved to 21 years in 2024 with new additions.
- India’s global ranking in ship ownership declined from 17 to 19.
- Increased port investments have not translated into shipping growth.
Challenges in the Indian Shipping Industry
- Lack of capital and high borrowing costs
- Short loan tenures, rigid collateral rules
- Unfavorable taxation (Indian vessels taxed higher than foreign ones)
- Regulatory hurdles (delays in fund repatriation, mandatory training costs)
- High port charges reducing competitiveness
- Foreign-flagged vessels benefit from tax havens, lenient regulations, and easy capital access
- Shipbuilding challenges:
- Inadequate infrastructure for large vessels
- High steel costs and dependence on imports
- Customs duties on machinery and spare parts
- Skill gaps in workforce
Measures in the Union Budget
- ₹25,000 crore Maritime Development Fund (MDF) (Govt. contributing 49%)
- Infrastructure status for large vessels
- Shipbuilding clusters
- 10-year customs duty exemption on shipbuilding spares
- Financial assistance for shipbuilding
- Credit incentives for shipbreaking
- Extension of tonnage tax scheme to inland vessels
- Unclear if MDF will be mobilised in one year or multiple years.
- Shipping and shipbuilding require long-term financing with lower interest rates.
Tax Disparities Remain Unaddressed
- 5% IGST on Indian-flagged ships, but not on foreign-flagged ships.
- TDS on Indian seafarers’ salaries, while foreign vessels employing Indian seafarers do not face this.
- Missed opportunity to correct tax disadvantages for Indian shipping.
The Way Forward
- The Budget 2025 is a step in the right direction but must not be a half-measure.
- Shipping reforms should focus on:
- Eliminating tax disparities
- Providing long-term, low-interest financing
- Modernizing shipbuilding infrastructure
- Reducing dependence on foreign-flag vessels for EXIM trade
4. The precarious road to development
Government’s Development Initiatives
- The government has launched ambitious projects in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), including highways and satellite townships.
- While these aim to boost connectivity and economic progress, they risk disrupting the ecological balance and displacing communities.
Semi-Ring Road Project: Impact on Agriculture
- Approved in 2021, the project required 900 acres of cultivated land, mainly affecting Budgam, Pulwama, Srinagar, Ganderbal, Bandipora, and Baramulla.
- Thousands of apple, plum, and pear trees have been axed, threatening the livelihood of farmers.
- J&K is an agrarian economy, with over 80% of the population linked to agriculture.
Land Acquisition and Inadequate Compensation
- The land acquisition has led to concerns over fair compensation.
- Farmers were compensated under the outdated Jammu and Kashmir Land Acquisition Act, 1934, instead of the Right to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation, and Resettlement Act, 2013.
- J&K’s commercial apple farming generates an estimated revenue of ₹1,500 crore, and converting fertile lands into construction sites will be disastrous.
Satellite Townships and Further Land Acquisition
- In May 2022, a moratorium was imposed on land transactions within 500 meters of the ring road.
- By October 2024, the Housing Board announced 30 satellite townships, covering 6,000 hectares—most of it agricultural land.
- These projects could leave marginal farmers landless and displace local populations.
Ecological and Social Consequences
- J&K contributes 80% of India’s temperate fruit production, yet large-scale land acquisitions threaten its agrarian backbone.
- Infrastructure projects have accelerated soil erosion, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity, leading to long-term ecological damage.
- Events like the 2014 floods exposed the region’s vulnerability, and unchecked urbanization increases disaster risks.
The Need for a Balanced Approach
- While infrastructure growth is crucial, it should not come at the cost of environmental degradation and social displacement.
- Robust social impact assessments, ecological safeguards, and fair compensation mechanisms are essential.
- Without urgent policy corrections, the long-term cost of such development will be severe for future generations.
5. Tariff turmoil: on Trump and punishing tariffs on trade
Trump’s Tariff Offensive
- Former U.S. President Donald Trump imposed heavy tariffs on trade with Canada, Mexico, and China, with more planned for other trading partners.
- Markets in Japan, South Korea, and Asia reacted negatively, fearing disruptions in supply chains, particularly in the automobile sector with significant foreign investments.
Specific Tariff Measures and Global Response
- Over the weekend, Trump signed three executive orders imposing:
- 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods (except Canadian energy products, which face a 10% tax).
- 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, in line with his campaign promises.
- China reacted strongly, threatening WTO litigation and countermeasures.
- Canada and Mexico vowed retaliation, though Trump’s call to Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum resulted in a one-month delay in enforcement.
- Trump hinted at targeting the European Union (EU) next, though the U.K. secured temporary relief.
Justification: National Security and Border Control
- The Trump administration justified the tariffs as a response to the “national emergency” caused by illegal immigration and drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl.
- However, tariffs are traditionally used to correct trade imbalances, not as tools for border security or unrelated disputes.
Economic and Trade Implications
- The move sets a dangerous precedent, allowing countries to weaponize tariffs in non-trade disputes.
- It risks global trade disruptions, worsening economic uncertainty.
- American consumers will face higher prices, fueling inflation and increasing input costs across industries.
Long-Term Outlook
- While Trump’s administration seeks to curb immigration and drug inflows, tariffs may not be an effective tool.
- If economic pain persists in the next four years, the U.S. may realize that tariffs are not a panacea for complex geopolitical and economic challenges.
6. Green and clean: on India and a critical minerals framework
India’s Clean Energy Transition
- India has significantly increased budgetary allocations for renewable energy, from ₹1,535 crore (2015) to ₹32,626 crore (2025).
- However, underutilization of funds has been a recurring issue, impacting progress.
Key Renewable Energy Initiatives
- PM-KUSUM (2019): Aims to install solar irrigation pumps and grid-connected solar plants on fallow farmlands but has had limited success (less than 0.5 GW capacity).
- COP26 Commitment (2021): India pledged to generate 50% of its energy from renewables within five years.
Incentives for Clean Energy Growth
- PLI Scheme for Battery Storage (2021): ₹18,100 crore allocated for advanced chemistry cell manufacturing to boost grid-scale battery storage.
- PLI Scheme for Solar Modules: ₹4,500 crore (2021) → ₹19,500 crore (2022).
Challenges in Renewable Energy Adoption
- Tariffs on Solar Imports:
- 40% Basic Customs Duty (BCD) on solar modules and 25% on solar cells imposed to curb Chinese imports.
- This led to higher costs and slowed solar installations across India.
- Coal Dependency Persists:
- Renewables form 46% of India’s installed capacity (as of October 2024).
- 70% of power output still relies on coal, due to intermittent renewable energy production.
Policy Adjustments and Future Roadmap
- Exemptions Announced:
- Government exempted 12 critical minerals and 35 capital goods from BCD to support lithium-ion battery production and reduce inflationary pressure.
- Need for a Critical Minerals Framework:
- India must reduce dependence on China and formulate a just and equitable policy for critical minerals extraction and distribution.
- With the U.S. stepping back from global leadership in clean energy, India has an opportunity to take a leading role in this transition.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on the editorial content published in The Hindu and is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The views, opinions, and interpretations expressed herein are those of the author of original article. Readers are encouraged to refer to the original article for complete context and to exercise their own judgment while interpreting the analysis. The analysis does not constitute professional advice or endorsement of any political, economic, or social perspective.
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