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Recipe for failure: On the U.S. and Yemen
The recent U.S. airstrikes on Yemen mark another chapter in the cycle of conflict in West Asia. While the Trump administration justified the attacks as a measure to prevent Houthi aggression in the Red Sea, this approach raises critical concerns about its effectiveness. Historically, military interventions have failed to neutralize the Houthis, and continued airstrikes risk exacerbating Yemen’s humanitarian crisis while destabilizing the region further.
Background: The Houthis and Regional Dynamics
The Ansar Allah (Houthi) movement emerged in the 1990s as a response to political and economic marginalization in Yemen. The group seized the capital, Sana’a, in 2014 and has since been engaged in conflicts with Saudi Arabia and its allies. The Houthis have positioned themselves as part of the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” against Western and Israeli interests in the region.
Following the October 7 Hamas attack and Israel’s subsequent military actions in Gaza, the Houthis declared war on Israel in 2023. Their actions, including targeting over 100 commercial vessels in the Red Sea, were framed as support for Palestinians. However, after an Israel-Hamas ceasefire on January 19, Houthi attacks subsided, only for the U.S. to resume hostilities with fresh airstrikes, allegedly to deter further threats to maritime security.
U.S. Strategic Interests and Risks
The United States’ primary objectives in Yemen can be analyzed from multiple angles:
(i) Maritime Security: The Red Sea is a crucial global trade route, and Washington seeks to ensure unimpeded navigation. However, past airstrikes have not deterred Houthi retaliation.
(ii) Countering Iranian Influence: By targeting the Houthis, the U.S. aims to weaken Iran’s regional alliances. However, this could escalate tensions and provoke stronger Iranian responses.
(iii) Demonstration of Military Strength: The strikes serve as a message to adversaries that the U.S. remains militarily dominant. Yet, past interventions in the Middle East have shown that airstrikes alone rarely lead to sustainable peace.
The Ineffectiveness of Military Action
Historical evidence suggests that military intervention alone is unlikely to weaken the Houthis:
(i) Resilience Against Airstrikes: The Houthis have survived years of relentless Saudi-led bombing campaigns, as well as attacks by the Biden administration, European allies, and Israel.
(ii) Strategic Depth: The Houthis control significant portions of Yemen, with deep-rooted political and military networks that cannot be dismantled through air power alone.
(iii) Humanitarian Fallout: Continued strikes risk worsening Yemen’s already dire humanitarian crisis, increasing civilian casualties and displacement.
The Need for Diplomatic Engagement
Rather than relying on military force, a diplomatic approach could yield better results. Key measures include:
(i) Negotiations with the Houthis: Engaging the Houthis directly could help establish ceasefires and prevent further attacks in the Red Sea.
(ii) Regional Cooperation: A broader diplomatic framework involving Saudi Arabia, Iran, and international mediators could contribute to long-term stability.
(iii) Humanitarian Assistance: Addressing Yemen’s humanitarian crisis through aid and development initiatives can help de-escalate tensions.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on the editorial content published in The Hindu and is intended solely for informational and educational purposes. The views, opinions, and interpretations expressed herein are those of the author of original article. Readers are encouraged to refer to the original article for complete context and to exercise their own judgment while interpreting the analysis. The analysis does not constitute professional advice or endorsement of any political, economic, or social perspective.
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